Today / Brazil - Serie D / Iguatu vs Nacional AM

Iguatu vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 19:00

Iguatu

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional AM

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.2%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.6%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-18.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Draw 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Away win 23.8% 21.1% 4.75 +7.8%

Over 2.5 46.8% 40.0% 2.50 +17.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% 22.2% 4.50 +12.6%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Iguatu1.4

Nacional AM0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IGUATU · PPG 2.14

NACIONAL AM · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Iguatu (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -13.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Nacional AM (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Iguatu face Nacional AM in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Iguatu a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Nacional AM 24%, so Iguatu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Iguatu and 0.8 for Nacional AM (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Iguatu are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.86 for Nacional AM. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.3%.

Iguatu vs Nacional AM Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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