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Colón vs Cerrito Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Colón

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cerrito

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 46.5% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0✓ 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colón1.6

Cerrito1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLÓN · PPG 1.22

CERRITO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colón (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cerrito (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colón face Cerrito in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Cerrito 29%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Colón and 1.2 for Cerrito (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.90 for Cerrito. This match finished 1-0.

Colón vs Cerrito Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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