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Atenas vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 12 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 19:00

Atenas

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colón

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-113.7%0-26.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.5%2-16.6%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 34.7% 2.88 +14.1%

Draw 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Away win 28.8% 44.4% 2.25 -21.1%

Over 2.5 42.4% 42.0% 2.38 +0.9%

Over 3.5 22.8% 21.5% 4.65 +3.6%

BTTS 48.7% 50.3% 1.99 -3.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 31.4% 3.18 +3.7%

Away O1.5 24.4% 36.0% 2.78 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atenas1.0

Colón0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATENAS · PPG 1.88

COLÓN · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atenas (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +14.1%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.9%

Colón (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atenas face Colón in Uruguay - Segunda División on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atenas a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Colón 29%, so Atenas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atenas and 0.9 for Colón (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atenas are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.62 for Colón. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Atenas vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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