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Cerrito vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 12 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Cerrito

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fenix

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 40.0% 2.50 +23.3%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

Away win 26.0% 37.7% 2.65 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 45.5% 2.20 +17.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 23.8% 4.20 +35.2%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 47.1% 38.2% 2.62 +23.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerrito1.6

Fenix1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRITO · PPG 2.71

FENIX · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerrito (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +23.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.9%

Fenix (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerrito face Fenix in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerrito a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Fenix 26%, so Cerrito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cerrito and 1.2 for Fenix (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerrito are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.12 for Fenix. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Cerrito vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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