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Tucuman Central vs El Linqueño Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Tucuman Central

PPG 2.12 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

El Linqueño

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-18.2%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 48.8% 2.05 +6.8%

Draw 27.0% 34.7% 2.88 -13.3%

Away win 20.9% 27.8% 3.60 -14.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 36.4% 2.75 +21.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 18.2% 5.50 +12.6%

BTTS 48.4% 40.0% 2.50 +21.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 36.4% 2.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–1✓ 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tucuman Central1.4

El Linqueño0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 2.12

EL LINQUEÑO · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tucuman Central (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.3%

El Linqueño (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tucuman Central face El Linqueño in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tucuman Central a 52% chance, the draw 27% and El Linqueño 21%, so Tucuman Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tucuman Central and 0.7 for El Linqueño (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tucuman Central are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.44 for El Linqueño. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Tucuman Central vs El Linqueño Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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