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Sarmiento Resistencia vs Atletico Escobar Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Sarmiento Resistencia

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Atletico Escobar

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.8%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-110.7%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 33.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Resistencia1.8

Atletico Escobar1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.50

ATLETICO ESCOBAR · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Resistencia (H) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletico Escobar (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Resistencia face Atletico Escobar in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Atletico Escobar 23%, so Sarmiento Resistencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.1 for Atletico Escobar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Resistencia are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.56 for Atletico Escobar. This match finished 0-1.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Atletico Escobar Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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