Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Costa Brava vs Germinal de Rawson

Costa Brava vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:30

Costa Brava

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-17.2%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.3%1-19.3%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.6%2-15.9%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.7%3-12.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 60.6% 1.65 -7.6%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 16.8% 20.0% 5.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -11.1%

BTTS 44.9% 40.0% 2.50 +12.3%

Home O1.5 37.1% 47.6% 2.10 -22.1%

Away O1.5 11.1% 18.2% 5.50 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.9%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.3%

#2 0–0 18.9%

#3 2–0 15.6%

#4 1–1✓ 9.3%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Costa Brava1.3

Germinal de Rawson0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 1.62

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Costa Brava (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -7.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Germinal de Rawson (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Costa Brava face Germinal de Rawson in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Costa Brava a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Germinal de Rawson 17%, so Costa Brava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Costa Brava and 0.4 for Germinal de Rawson (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Costa Brava are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Germinal de Rawson. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Costa Brava vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions