Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Boca Unidos vs Independiente De Chivilcoy

Boca Unidos vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:30

Boca Unidos

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+51.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.6%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.6%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.7%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-15.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 50.0% 2.00 +13.0%

Draw 22.3% 33.3% 3.00 -19.9%

Away win 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -14.4%

Over 2.5 58.0% 40.0% 2.50 +45.0%

Over 3.5 34.8% 22.2% 4.50 +56.6%

BTTS 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Home O1.5 60.7% 40.0% 2.50 +51.7%

Away O1.5 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Unidos2.1

Independiente De Chivilcoy0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 1.88

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boca Unidos (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +13.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.9%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Unidos face Independiente De Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Unidos a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 21%, so Boca Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Boca Unidos and 0.8 for Independiente De Chivilcoy (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Unidos are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.67 for Independiente De Chivilcoy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Boca Unidos vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions