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Villa Mitre vs Cipolletti Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:30

Villa Mitre

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cipolletti

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-18.4%0-21.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.4%1-19.7%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.2%2-15.6%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.5%3-12.2%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 63.7% 1.57 -19.3%

Draw 32.2% 30.3% 3.30 +6.3%

Away win 16.4% 17.4% 5.75 -3.4%

Over 2.5 34.8% 36.4% 2.75 -4.3%

Over 3.5 14.4% 18.2% 5.50 -12.5%

BTTS 44.4% 33.3% 3.00 +33.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 14.3% 7.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.4%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.4%

#2 0–0 21.1%

#3 2–0 14.2%

#4 1–1✓ 9.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Mitre1.2

Cipolletti0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA MITRE · PPG 2.00

CIPOLLETTI · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villa Mitre (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -19.3%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.3%

Cipolletti (A) 16.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Mitre face Cipolletti in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Mitre a 51% chance, the draw 32% and Cipolletti 16%, so Villa Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Mitre and 0.4 for Cipolletti (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Mitre are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Cipolletti. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Villa Mitre vs Cipolletti Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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