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Bartolomé Mitre vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:30

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-17.8%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.3%1-19.2%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-15.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-12.1%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 48.8% 2.05 +8.6%

Draw 30.3% 35.7% 2.80 -15.2%

Away win 16.7% 27.8% 3.60 -23.9%

Over 2.5 34.8% 33.3% 3.00 +4.4%

Over 3.5 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

BTTS 44.4% 38.2% 2.62 +16.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Away O1.5 11.1% 22.2% 4.50 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.4%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.3%

#2 0–0 21.6%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1✓ 9.2%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bartolomé Mitre1.2

Sarmiento de La Banda0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 2.25

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bartolomé Mitre (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.2%

Sarmiento de La Banda (A) 16.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bartolomé Mitre face Sarmiento de La Banda in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bartolomé Mitre a 53% chance, the draw 30% and Sarmiento de La Banda 17%, so Bartolomé Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.4 for Sarmiento de La Banda (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bartolomé Mitre are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarmiento de La Banda. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Bartolomé Mitre vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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