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Sol de Mayo vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Sol de Mayo

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.7%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.0%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 48.8% 2.05 +2.1%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -13.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Over 3.5 25.4% 22.2% 4.50 +8.6%

BTTS 48.4% 45.5% 2.20 +6.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.2% 2.62 -0.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de Mayo1.4

Deportivo Rincon0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 1.56

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de Mayo (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Deportivo Rincon (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de Mayo face Deportivo Rincon in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de Mayo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Rincon 23%, so Sol de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sol de Mayo and 0.7 for Deportivo Rincon (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de Mayo are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.75 for Deportivo Rincon. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Sol de Mayo vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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