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Santamarina vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Santamarina

PPG 1.12 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-112.4%0-23.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.2%1-111.6%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-15.4%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Draw 34.1% 36.4% 2.75 -6.2%

Away win 22.3% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Over 2.5 29.3% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Over 3.5 13.7% 16.7% 6.00 -10.7%

BTTS 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 32.9% 3.04 -2.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.3% 4.30 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.8%

H 44% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 1–0 21.2%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–1✓ 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santamarina0.9

San Martín Mendoza0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTAMARINA · PPG 1.12

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 0.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 1.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santamarina (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -6.2%

San Martín Mendoza (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santamarina face San Martín Mendoza in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santamarina a 44% chance, the draw 34% and San Martín Mendoza 22%, so Santamarina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Santamarina and 0.5 for San Martín Mendoza (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santamarina are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.38 for San Martín Mendoza. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Santamarina vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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