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Circulo Deportivo vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guillermo Brown

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.5%0-110.5%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.4%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-16.3%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.3%3-12.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 44.4% 2.25 +13.4%

Draw 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away win 20.9% 31.3% 3.20 -19.9%

Over 2.5 36.3% 30.8% 3.25 +18.0%

Over 3.5 18.1% 15.4% 6.50 +10.6%

BTTS 45.5% 38.2% 2.62 +19.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 29.4% 3.40 +9.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 50% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.5%

#2 1–0✓ 21.4%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Circulo Deportivo1.1

Guillermo Brown0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.25

GUILLERMO BROWN · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Circulo Deportivo (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.4%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Guillermo Brown (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Circulo Deportivo face Guillermo Brown in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Circulo Deportivo a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Guillermo Brown 21%, so Circulo Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Circulo Deportivo and 0.5 for Guillermo Brown (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Circulo Deportivo are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.67 for Guillermo Brown. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Circulo Deportivo vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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