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Douglas Haig vs San Martin Formosa Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Douglas Haig

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Martin Formosa

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.2%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 50.0% 2.00 +12.4%

Draw 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Away win 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -13.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 42.0% 2.38 +27.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 22.2% 4.50 +45.4%

BTTS 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Home O1.5 55.4% 45.5% 2.20 +21.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 22.2% 4.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Douglas Haig1.9

San Martin Formosa0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 2.33

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Douglas Haig (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +12.4%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

San Martin Formosa (A) 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Douglas Haig face San Martin Formosa in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Douglas Haig a 56% chance, the draw 23% and San Martin Formosa 21%, so Douglas Haig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Douglas Haig and 0.8 for San Martin Formosa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Douglas Haig are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.25 for San Martin Formosa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Douglas Haig vs San Martin Formosa Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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