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Argentino Monte Maíz vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Monte Maíz

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atenas

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-17.8%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.8%1-110.7%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-17.3%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.5%3-13.4%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 35.7% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.9%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 2–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Monte Maíz1.4

Atenas0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ · PPG 2.00

ATENAS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Monte Maíz (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atenas (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Monte Maíz face Atenas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Monte Maíz a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Atenas 20%, so Argentino Monte Maíz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Argentino Monte Maíz and 0.5 for Atenas (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Monte Maíz are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Atenas. This match finished 1-2.

Argentino Monte Maíz vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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