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Sportivo Las Parejas vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:30

Sportivo Las Parejas

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Defensores de Vilelas

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-17.7%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.7%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 26.2% 27.8% 3.60 -3.4%

Away win 20.8% 17.4% 5.75 +11.8%

Over 2.5 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Over 3.5 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

BTTS 48.4% 44.4% 2.25 +8.9%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 18.2% 5.50 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Las Parejas1.5

Defensores de Vilelas0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO LAS PAREJAS · PPG 1.89

DEFENSORES DE VILELAS · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Las Parejas (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.4%

Defensores de Vilelas (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Las Parejas face Defensores de Vilelas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Las Parejas a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Defensores de Vilelas 21%, so Sportivo Las Parejas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sportivo Las Parejas and 0.7 for Defensores de Vilelas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Las Parejas are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.75 for Defensores de Vilelas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Sportivo Las Parejas vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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