Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 29 Stadion Miejski w Gdyni· Gdynia Sunday, April 19, 2026 15:30

Arka Gdynia PPG 2.07

0-3 MISS

Jagiellonia PPG 1.36

Over3.5· +13.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Arka Gdynia face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arka Gdynia a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Jagiellonia 43%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arka Gdynia and 1.6 for Jagiellonia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arka Gdynia are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.36 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +0.4%

Draw 24.2%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -15.3%

Away 43.4%

Odds: 2.18 EV: -5.4%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.3% Odds: 1.90 +8.9%

Over 3.5 34.8% Odds: 3.25 +13.1%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.73 +3.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Arka Gdynia

1.37

Jagiellonia

1.61

Model SuggestionBTTS +3.3% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+13.1%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.8%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)