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Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:30

Arka Gdynia

PPG 2.07 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.2%0-26.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.9%1-111.2%1-29.0%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.6%2-26.2%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.3%

Away win 43.4% 45.9% 2.18 -5.4%

Over 2.5 57.3% 52.6% 1.90 +8.9%

Over 3.5 34.8% 30.8% 3.25 +13.1%

BTTS 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arka Gdynia1.4

Jagiellonia1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 2.07

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Arka Gdynia (H) 32.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.3%

Jagiellonia (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arka Gdynia face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arka Gdynia a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Jagiellonia 43%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arka Gdynia and 1.6 for Jagiellonia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arka Gdynia are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.36 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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