Today / Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion / Luzern II vs Brühl

Luzern II vs Brühl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Luzern II

PPG 1.48 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brühl

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.3%0-22.2%0-31.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.8%1-15.6%1-25.6%1-33.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.5%2-17.0%2-27.0%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.8%3-25.8%3-33.8%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.5%4+-26.5%4+-34.3%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 33.9% 2.95 +46.0%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 28.6% 52.4% 1.91 -27.2%

Over 2.5 73.0% 82.0% 1.22 -10.9%

Over 3.5 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 59.9% 1.67 +5.2%

Away O1.5 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.6%

H 50% / xG 2.5-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 3–1 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern II2.5

Brühl2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN II · PPG 1.48

BRÜHL · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Luzern II (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +46.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Brühl (A) 28.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern II face Brühl in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern II a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Brühl 29%, so Luzern II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Luzern II and 2.0 for Brühl (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern II are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.56 for Brühl. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Luzern II vs Brühl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion Predictions