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Bavois vs Zürich II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.79 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zürich II

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.8%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.8%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.8%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.5%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 62.5% 1.60 -9.6%

Draw 22.3% 23.1% 4.33 -2.1%

Away win 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -8.1%

Over 2.5 60.4% 72.5% 1.38 -16.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% 51.3% 1.95 -28.0%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 57.5% 70.4% 1.42 -18.4%

Away O1.5 30.6% 42.6% 2.35 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois2.0

Zürich II1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.79

ZÜRICH II · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -9.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.1%

Zürich II (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Zürich II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Zürich II 21%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bavois and 1.0 for Zürich II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.48 for Zürich II. This match finished 2-2.

Bavois vs Zürich II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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