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Lugano II vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Lugano II

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bulle

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.3%0-23.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.7%1-18.4%1-27.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.6%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.0%3-15.3%3-24.7%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.1%4+-23.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 33.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 76%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano II2.0

Bulle1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO II · PPG 1.33

BULLE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lugano II (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bulle (A) 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano II face Bulle in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano II a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Bulle 33%, so Lugano II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lugano II and 1.8 for Bulle (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano II are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Bulle.

Lugano II vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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