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Strasbourg vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:15

Strasbourg

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rennes

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.7%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.3%1-18.3%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.1%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.8%4+-24.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 38.5% 2.60 +52.6%

Draw 19.8% 27.8% 3.60 -28.7%

Away win 21.6% 41.0% 2.44 -47.3%

Over 2.5 69.4% 60.6% 1.65 +14.5%

Over 3.5 48.1% 37.7% 2.65 +27.5%

BTTS 65.7% 65.4% 1.53 +0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.7%

H 59% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strasbourg2.3

Rennes1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.93

RENNES · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Strasbourg (H) 58.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +52.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -28.7%

Rennes (A) 21.6%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strasbourg face Rennes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strasbourg a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Rennes 22%, so Strasbourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Strasbourg and 1.3 for Rennes (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strasbourg are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.57 for Rennes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Strasbourg vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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