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Nantes vs Brest Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:15

Nantes

PPG 0.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brest

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.4%0-26.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.7%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 42.6% 2.35 -22.4%

Draw 25.4% 31.7% 3.15 -20.0%

Away win 41.7% 32.3% 3.10 +29.3%

Over 2.5 52.1% 47.6% 2.10 +9.4%

Over 3.5 29.9% 26.0% 3.85 +15.1%

BTTS 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.8%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 0–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantes1.3

Brest1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTES · PPG 0.57

BREST · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Nantes (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -22.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -20.0%

Brest (A) 41.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantes face Brest in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantes a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Brest 42%, so Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nantes and 1.5 for Brest (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantes are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Brest. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Nantes vs Brest Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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