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Metz vs Paris FC Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:15

Metz

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paris FC

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.5%0-27.7%0-34.7%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.6%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-16.6%2-26.0%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.9%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

Away win 50.7% 48.1% 2.08 +5.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.7% 32.3% 3.10 +13.8%

BTTS 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 51% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 8.5%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metz1.2

Paris FC1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

METZ · PPG 0.71

PARIS FC · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Metz (H) 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.9%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.8%

Paris FC (A) 50.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metz face Paris FC in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metz a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Paris FC 51%, so Paris FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Metz and 1.8 for Paris FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metz are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.07 for Paris FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Metz vs Paris FC Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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