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Fyllingsdalen vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Fyllingsdalen

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varegg

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.4%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.3%1-110.6%1-27.8%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.9%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.4%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 31.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 62.8% — — —

Home O1.5 49.0% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.8%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fyllingsdalen1.7

Varegg1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLLINGSDALEN · PPG 0.71

VAREGG · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fyllingsdalen (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varegg (A) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fyllingsdalen face Varegg in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fyllingsdalen a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Varegg 32%, so Fyllingsdalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fyllingsdalen and 1.5 for Varegg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fyllingsdalen are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.17 for Varegg. This match finished 0-4.

Fyllingsdalen vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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