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Sogndal II vs Førde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Sogndal II

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Førde

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.3%1-15.8%1-23.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.2%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-111.1%4+-27.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 46.3% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 73.0% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 3–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal II2.8

Førde1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL II · PPG 1.20

FØRDE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal II (H) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Førde (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal II face Førde in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal II a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Førde 23%, so Sogndal II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Sogndal II and 1.4 for Førde (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal II are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Førde.

Sogndal II vs Førde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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