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Kozarmisleny vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Kozarmisleny

PPG 1.58 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ajka

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-110.1%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.6%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 42.0% 2.38 +15.9%

Draw 29.6% 34.7% 2.88 -14.8%

Away win 21.7% 35.7% 2.80 -39.2%

Over 2.5 31.7% — — —

Over 3.5 13.8% — — —

BTTS 36.9% 57.1% 1.75 -35.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.9%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kozarmisleny1.2

Ajka0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KOZARMISLENY · PPG 1.58

AJKA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Kozarmisleny (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +15.9%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.8%

Ajka (A) 21.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -39.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kozarmisleny face Ajka in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kozarmisleny a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Ajka 22%, so Kozarmisleny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kozarmisleny and 0.7 for Ajka (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kozarmisleny are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.36 for Ajka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Kozarmisleny vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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