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Gimpo Citizen vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:30

Gimpo Citizen

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gyeongnam FC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.4%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.2%1-113.0%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.1%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 51.3% 1.95 -20.1%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 31.5% 26.3% 3.80 +19.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.7% 3.75 +5.0%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 29.0% 3.45 +25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo Citizen1.2

Gyeongnam FC1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO CITIZEN · PPG 0.75

GYEONGNAM FC · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo Citizen (H) 41.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -20.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Gyeongnam FC (A) 31.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo Citizen face Gyeongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo Citizen a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Gyeongnam FC 32%, so Gimpo Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimpo Citizen and 1.2 for Gyeongnam FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo Citizen are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Gyeongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.9%.

Gimpo Citizen vs Gyeongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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