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Yongin City vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Yongin City

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Busan I Park

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.5%0-27.2%0-34.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.1%1-19.9%1-29.5%1-36.1%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.3%2-34.1%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -13.1%

Away win 45.5% 52.6% 1.90 -13.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 51.8% 1.93 +22.4%

Over 3.5 39.5% 29.9% 3.35 +32.3%

BTTS 62.1% 57.1% 1.75 +8.7%

Home O1.5 37.4% 31.3% 3.20 +19.7%

Away O1.5 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.1%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yongin City1.3

Busan I Park1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YONGIN CITY · PPG 0.80

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 1.78

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Yongin City (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +18.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.1%

Busan I Park (A) 45.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yongin City face Busan I Park in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yongin City a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Busan I Park 46%, so Busan I Park are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Yongin City and 1.9 for Busan I Park (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yongin City are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.78 for Busan I Park. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +33.2%.

Yongin City vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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