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TOSK Tesanj vs Igman Konjic Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 19 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Igman Konjic

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+37.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-13.8%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-16.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.6%4+-115.5%4+-25.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.6% 63.7% 1.57 +37.5%

Draw 8.4% 27.0% 3.70 -68.9%

Away win 4.0% 21.1% 4.75 -81.0%

Over 2.5 77.8% 51.3% 1.95 +51.7%

Over 3.5 58.9% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 88% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 78% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.0%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOSK Tesanj3.4

Igman Konjic0.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.8% · O3.5 PROB 58.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 2.22

IGMAN KONJIC · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.22), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

TOSK Tesanj (H) 87.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +37.5%

Draw 8.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -68.9%

Igman Konjic (A) 4.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -81.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

TOSK Tesanj face Igman Konjic in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOSK Tesanj a 88% chance, the draw 8% and Igman Konjic 4%, so TOSK Tesanj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for TOSK Tesanj and 0.7 for Igman Konjic (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOSK Tesanj are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Igman Konjic. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.7%. This match finished 1-1.

TOSK Tesanj vs Igman Konjic Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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