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Stupcanica vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 19 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Stupcanica

PPG 1.78 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Celik

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.9%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.1%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 47.6% 2.10 -12.0%

Draw 29.0% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 29.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.5%

Over 2.5 37.2% 45.5% 2.20 -18.2%

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 43.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.5%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stupcanica1.2

Celik1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STUPCANICA · PPG 1.78

CELIK · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.78) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.11)

Win probability 1X2

Stupcanica (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Celik (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stupcanica face Celik in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stupcanica a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Celik 29%, so Stupcanica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stupcanica and 1.0 for Celik (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stupcanica are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.11 for Celik. This match finished 3-1.

Stupcanica vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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