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UWA Nedlands vs Mandurah City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

UWA Nedlands

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mandurah City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.3%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.8%1-16.0%1-24.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.6%3-17.2%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-19.1%4+-27.1%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.7% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob70.3%

H 54% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UWA Nedlands2.7

Mandurah City1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UWA NEDLANDS · PPG 2.78

MANDURAH CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UWA Nedlands (H) 53.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mandurah City (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UWA Nedlands face Mandurah City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UWA Nedlands a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Mandurah City 25%, so UWA Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for UWA Nedlands and 1.6 for Mandurah City (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UWA Nedlands are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Mandurah City.

UWA Nedlands vs Mandurah City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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