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Murdoch Melville vs Curtin University Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Murdoch Melville

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Curtin University

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.2%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch Melville1.9

Curtin University1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH MELVILLE · PPG 1.33

CURTIN UNIVERSITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch Melville (H) 53.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Curtin University (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch Melville face Curtin University in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch Melville a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Curtin University 24%, so Murdoch Melville are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Murdoch Melville and 1.1 for Curtin University (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch Melville are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Curtin University.

Murdoch Melville vs Curtin University Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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