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Gwelup Croatia vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Subiaco

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.2%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.6%1-17.3%1-25.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-16.6%3-25.3%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.6%4+-25.3%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 25.9% 34.7% 2.88 -15.2%

Over 2.5 66.8% 69.4% 1.44 -3.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.3% 2.07 -7.3%

BTTS 63.5% 73.0% 1.37 -13.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 59.9% 1.67 +0.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 50.3% 1.99 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwelup Croatia2.3

Subiaco1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 1.22

SUBIACO · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gwelup Croatia (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Subiaco (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwelup Croatia face Subiaco in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwelup Croatia a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Subiaco 26%, so Gwelup Croatia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gwelup Croatia and 1.6 for Subiaco (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwelup Croatia are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.75 for Subiaco. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Gwelup Croatia vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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