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VfB Stuttgart B vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:30

VfB Stuttgart B

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Erzgebirge Aue

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.9%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.7%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -11.8%

Away win 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Over 2.5 58.9% 66.7% 1.50 -11.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

BTTS 59.8% 70.4% 1.42 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.8%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Stuttgart B1.8

Erzgebirge Aue1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB STUTTGART B · PPG 1.69

ERZGEBIRGE AUE · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

VfB Stuttgart B (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.8%

Erzgebirge Aue (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Stuttgart B face Erzgebirge Aue in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Stuttgart B a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Erzgebirge Aue 27%, so VfB Stuttgart B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for VfB Stuttgart B and 1.3 for Erzgebirge Aue (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Stuttgart B are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.44 for Erzgebirge Aue. This match finished 2-2.

VfB Stuttgart B vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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