VfB Stuttgart B vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Germany - 3. Liga Regular Season - 34 WIRmachenDRUCK Arena· Aspach Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:30

VfB Stuttgart B PPG 1.69

2-2 MISS

Erzgebirge Aue PPG 0.44

Home· -2.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Stuttgart B face Erzgebirge Aue in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Stuttgart B a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Erzgebirge Aue 27%, so VfB Stuttgart B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for VfB Stuttgart B and 1.3 for Erzgebirge Aue (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Stuttgart B are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.44 for Erzgebirge Aue. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.9%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -2.7%

Draw 23.2%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -11.8%

Away 27.0%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -9.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.9% Odds: 1.50 -11.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% Odds: 2.25 -17.9%

BTTS 59.8% Odds: 1.42 -15.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

VfB Stuttgart B

1.79

Erzgebirge Aue

1.26

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=49.9%