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Port Melbourne vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 04:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Northcote City

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-114.1%0-213.4%0-38.5%0-4+6.2%1 1-05.2%1-19.9%1-29.4%1-35.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-01.8%2-13.5%2-23.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 11.1% 9.00 +14.5%

Draw 22.3% 15.4% 6.50 +27.0%

Away win 63.8% 83.3% 1.20 -23.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 75.2% 1.33 -28.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 54.6% 1.83 -40.0%

BTTS 48.5% 55.2% 1.81 -12.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 19.8% 5.05 +68.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 88.5% 1.13 -44.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.5%

A 64% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.4%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne0.7

Northcote City1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.70

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 1.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 13.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +14.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +27.0%

Northcote City (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Northcote City 64%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Port Melbourne and 1.9 for Northcote City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Northcote City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.2%.

Port Melbourne vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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