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Juventud Antoniana vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:00

Juventud Antoniana

PPG 1.62 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Alvarado

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-112.6%0-23.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-15.8%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 51.3% 1.95 -10.3%

Draw 31.8% 35.1% 2.85 -9.4%

Away win 22.2% 25.3% 3.95 -7.4%

Over 2.5 34.8% 33.3% 3.00 +4.4%

Over 3.5 18.1% 16.7% 6.00 +5.2%

BTTS 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud Antoniana1.0

Alvarado0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD ANTONIANA · PPG 1.62

ALVARADO · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 1.55 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud Antoniana (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.3%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -9.4%

Alvarado (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud Antoniana face Alvarado in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud Antoniana a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Alvarado 22%, so Juventud Antoniana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Juventud Antoniana and 0.6 for Alvarado (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud Antoniana are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Alvarado. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Juventud Antoniana vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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