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Sportivo Belgrano vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:45

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-14.4%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.6%1-18.8%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-15.7%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-14.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1✓ 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Belgrano2.0

9 de Julio Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.78

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Belgrano (H) 64.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

9 de Julio Rafaela (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Belgrano face 9 de Julio Rafaela in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Belgrano a 64% chance, the draw 21% and 9 de Julio Rafaela 15%, so Sportivo Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sportivo Belgrano and 0.6 for 9 de Julio Rafaela (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Belgrano are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for 9 de Julio Rafaela. This match finished 1-1.

Sportivo Belgrano vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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