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Police vs Wari Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular Season ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 09:30

Police

PPG 1.99 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wari

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-15.0%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-19.5%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 19.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Police1.9

Wari0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POLICE · PPG 1.99

WARI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Police (H) 56.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wari (A) 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Police face Wari in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Police a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Wari 20%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Police and 0.6 for Wari (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Police are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 0.75 for Wari.

Police vs Wari Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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