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Calcutta Customs vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 09:30

Calcutta Customs

PPG 1.19 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mohun Bagan

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.32 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.7%0-29.1%0-37.2%0-4+7.6%1 1-03.4%1-18.1%1-29.6%1-37.6%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.3%2-25.1%2-34.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.8%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob60.0%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Calcutta Customs1.1

Mohun Bagan2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CALCUTTA CUSTOMS · PPG 1.19

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 1.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.32 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Calcutta Customs (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mohun Bagan (A) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Calcutta Customs face Mohun Bagan in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Calcutta Customs a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Mohun Bagan 55%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Calcutta Customs and 2.4 for Mohun Bagan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Calcutta Customs are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.96 for Mohun Bagan.

Calcutta Customs vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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