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Midland vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:00

Midland

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-110.0%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-17.2%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-12.9%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 54.1% 1.85 -10.6%

Draw 31.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.0%

Away win 20.6% 22.2% 4.50 -4.4%

Over 2.5 36.3% 40.8% 2.45 -11.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -8.4%

BTTS 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Home O1.5 33.6% 44.4% 2.25 -24.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 215 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -3.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.2

Deportivo Maipu0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -10.6%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.0%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Deportivo Maipu 21%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Midland and 0.6 for Deportivo Maipu (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.82 for Deportivo Maipu.

Midland vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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