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Almagro vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Almagro

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-110.3%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-17.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 36.4% 2.75 +33.1%

Draw 28.4% 37.0% 2.70 -14.0%

Away win 23.2% 36.4% 2.75 -21.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 33.9% 2.95 +7.1%

Over 3.5 20.5% 15.4% 6.50 +20.0%

BTTS 47.4% 44.4% 2.25 +6.7%

Home O1.5 34.0% 29.4% 3.40 +15.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 29.4% 3.40 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 213 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.4%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro1.2

Gimnasia Y Tiro0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.82

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +33.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.0%

Gimnasia Y Tiro (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Gimnasia Y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 23%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Almagro and 0.7 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.10 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%.

Almagro vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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