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Club Atlético Güemes vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 19:00

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-118.1%0-29.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-112.8%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.5%2-14.6%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 37.7% 2.65 -16.6%

Draw 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

Away win 41.1% 33.9% 2.95 +21.3%

Over 2.5 33.6% 30.8% 3.25 +9.2%

Over 3.5 17.1% 14.3% 7.00 +11.8%

BTTS 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

Away O1.5 30.5% 26.3% 3.80 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 203 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.4%

A 41% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atlético Güemes0.7

Tristan Suarez1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 1.27

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Atlético Güemes (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.6%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.8%

Tristan Suarez (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atlético Güemes face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atlético Güemes a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Tristan Suarez 41%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Club Atlético Güemes and 1.0 for Tristan Suarez (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atlético Güemes are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.60 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.4%.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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