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Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 23:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.5%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Over 2.5 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.3% 3.95 +8.3%

BTTS 50.3% 54.1% 1.85 -6.9%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 213 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.3%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.4

Gimnasia Jujuy0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.80

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Gimnasia Jujuy 24%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Quilmes and 0.8 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.09 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Quilmes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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