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Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:30

Carmarthen Town

PPG 1.39 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caerau (Ely)

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.4%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.4%1-111.8%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 34.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carmarthen Town1.4

Caerau (Ely)1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CARMARTHEN TOWN · PPG 1.39

CAERAU (ELY) · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carmarthen Town (H) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caerau (Ely) (A) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Carmarthen Town face Caerau (Ely) in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carmarthen Town a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Caerau (Ely) 35%, so Carmarthen Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Carmarthen Town and 1.4 for Caerau (Ely) (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carmarthen Town are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.70 for Caerau (Ely).

Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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