Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Trethomas Bluebirds

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Baglan Dragons

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.2%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.1%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Away win 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 38.2% 2.62 +3.2%

BTTS 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Home O1.5 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 33.6% 2.98 +8.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trethomas Bluebirds1.9

Baglan Dragons1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS · PPG 1.48

BAGLAN DRAGONS · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Trethomas Bluebirds (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Baglan Dragons (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trethomas Bluebirds face Baglan Dragons in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trethomas Bluebirds a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Baglan Dragons 24%, so Trethomas Bluebirds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.2 for Baglan Dragons (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trethomas Bluebirds are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.93 for Baglan Dragons. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.4%.

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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