Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town

Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:30

Treowen Stars

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pontypridd Town

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.6%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.2%1-19.2%1-26.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.1%3-16.1%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 27.8% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 46.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treowen Stars2.0

Pontypridd Town1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TREOWEN STARS · PPG 1.48

PONTYPRIDD TOWN · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Treowen Stars (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pontypridd Town (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Treowen Stars face Pontypridd Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treowen Stars a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Pontypridd Town 28%, so Treowen Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Treowen Stars and 1.5 for Pontypridd Town (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treowen Stars are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.17 for Pontypridd Town.

Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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