Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Mold Alexandra vs Caersws

Mold Alexandra vs Caersws Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:30

Mold Alexandra logo
Mold Alexandra
PPG 1.35 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Caersws logo
Caersws
PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.9%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.7%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.8%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.9%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 50.0%
Draw 23.9%
Away win 26.1%
Over 2.5 61.2%
Over 3.5 37.8%
BTTS 62.1%
Home O1.5 49.4%
Away O1.5 36.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%
#2 2–1 9.6%
#3 2–0 7.7%
#4 1–0 8.6%
#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mold Alexandra1.8
Caersws1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.35

CAERSWS · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mold Alexandra (H) 50.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Caersws (A) 26.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mold Alexandra face Caersws in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mold Alexandra a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Caersws 26%, so Mold Alexandra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mold Alexandra and 1.2 for Caersws (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mold Alexandra are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.09 for Caersws.

PredictVantage

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