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Polonia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:30

Polonia Warszawa

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ruch Chorzów

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.1%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-16.2%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 47.6% 2.10 +16.1%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 20.5% 32.3% 3.10 -21.9%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

BTTS 48.6% 61.7% 1.62 -21.3%

Home O1.5 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Away O1.5 18.7% 40.0% 2.50 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Warszawa1.9

Ruch Chorzów0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.83

RUCH CHORZÓW · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Warszawa (H) 55.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +16.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Ruch Chorzów (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Warszawa face Ruch Chorzów in Poland - I Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Warszawa a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Ruch Chorzów 21%, so Polonia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Polonia Warszawa and 0.8 for Ruch Chorzów (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Warszawa are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.02 for Ruch Chorzów. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Polonia Warszawa vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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