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Räppe vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:30

Räppe

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Berga

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-110.2%0-28.4%0-34.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.0%2-16.6%2-25.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 34.7% 2.88 -9.6%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Away win 43.6% 48.1% 2.08 -9.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 38.0% 2.63 -15.0%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 42.2% 2.37 -23.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 53.5% 1.87 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -18.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Räppe1.1

Berga1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RÄPPE · PPG 0.88

BERGA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Räppe (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Berga (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Räppe face Berga in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Räppe a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Berga 44%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Räppe and 1.6 for Berga (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Räppe are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.14 for Berga.

Räppe vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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