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Enköping vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:30

Enköping

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karlberg

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.6%0-25.5%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.6%1-18.9%1-28.8%1-35.7%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.1%2-27.0%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 42.9% 2.33 -23.1%

Draw 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Away win 44.3% 40.0% 2.50 +10.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 67.6% 1.48 -5.0%

Over 3.5 43.0% 45.5% 2.20 -5.4%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 47.5% 54.6% 1.83 -13.1%

Away O1.5 54.7% 52.6% 1.90 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.3%

A 44% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enköping1.6

Karlberg2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ENKÖPING · PPG 2.00

KARLBERG · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Enköping (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -23.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Karlberg (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enköping face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enköping a 33% chance, the draw 23% and Karlberg 44%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Enköping and 2.0 for Karlberg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enköping are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.62 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Enköping vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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